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| Image Source: Al-Jazeera |
Taiwan considers its ability to counter an attempted Chinese invasion with lessons learned from the Israel-Gaza war and Russia's invasion of Ukraine.
On October 7, the Palestinian armed group Hamas launched a surprise
attack on Israel, firing thousands of rockets that quickly overwhelmed Israel's
state-of-the-art Iron Dome air defense system while thousands of fighters flew
into southern Israel. Entered. sea and land.
The
significance of Hamas's surprise attack was not lost on Taiwan's military,
which lives by a pledge by Beijing's political leaders to unify independent
Taiwan with China by force if necessary.
A week after
Hamas attacked Israel, Taiwan's Ministry of Defense announced the formation of
a task force to learn lessons from the Israel-Gaza war.
Taiwan's
defense minister, Chiu Kuo-cheng, has said the early lesson is that
intelligence gathering is key to countering China's threats.
Taiwan also has
the sea, said Tony Wei, 42, a member of Taiwan's reserves and a dentist by
profession.
Taiwan is
separated from China's east coast by a 130 km (81 mi) stretch of sea called the
Taiwan Strait, which acts as a natural barrier and early warning system should
Beijing launch a surprise attack on Taiwan. Try to subdue.
"To attack
Taiwan, they (the Chinese military) have to gather a huge fleet," Wei told
Al Jazeera.
China's
mobilization of such a naval force would probably be detected by Taiwan, giving
the self-ruled island time to prepare for an attack or even pre-empt it, Wei
said.
Still, the
Hamas raid — which was widely considered unthinkable by military analysts
before it happened — has made Wei question whether Taiwan really has the
capabilities to potentially commit it. are necessary to counter the Chinese
army.
"The
Israelis have a very powerful military, an effective intelligence service and a
lot of American support," Wei said. If Israel can be surprised and
overwhelmed, what about Taiwan?
The Israel-Gaza
war is the second time the world has recently been taken by surprise by a
military operation until its conclusion.
"They said
President Putin wouldn't attack Ukraine, but he did, and he said Hamas couldn't
attack Israel, but they did," Wei said, referring to the February 2022
Russian attack. said
"Taiwan
needs to learn from these attacks if our island is to become the next place
where the unthinkable happens."
Surprise attacks: Know first, respond later
Eric Chan, a
non-resident research fellow at the Global Taiwan Institute, told Al Jazeera
that "Hamas' attack achieved strategic, operational and tactical surprise
against the Israelis."
"Taiwan
has a vested interest in avoiding this kind of surprise, especially because
their adversary has more powers than Hamas," Chan said.
"The
surprise attack by Hamas, along with the Russian attack, was a demonstration of
something that you'd think the adversary would have gotten away with at a heavy
price, but maybe the adversary has gotten away with it," he added. Don't
care."
Fang Yuchen, an
assistant professor at Taipei's Soochow University who researches political
relations between Taiwan, China and the United States, said Taiwan's
announcement of the task force after the Hamas attack was an attempt to learn
lessons. Preventing Taiwan's Intelligence Failure Regarding China
"Taiwan is
constantly receiving a lot of information about China's activities, but such
information must be verified, analyzed and communicated to the right
people," Chen told Al Jazeera.
According to
Chen, Taiwan may seek to strengthen its intelligence gathering to ensure that
credible threats from China are clearly identified before potential disaster
strikes.
"The next
important consideration is what to do after the attack has occurred," he
said.
The government
of Taiwan has also taken steps in this direction.
More money is
being allocated for the military. Compulsory military service for Taiwanese
citizens is being extended from four months to one year. The purchase of a new
missile system was announced, and the island's first indigenously built
submarine was also unveiled earlier this month.
According to
Chen, in its preparations, Taiwan has also seen and learned from the war in
Ukraine.
He said a major
lesson of Russia's invasion is the importance of not only strengthening the
island's conventional military and intelligence, but also its capabilities in
the field of information warfare to win the narrative war.
A battle of narratives
Chen observed
that China's information operations in Taiwan have been adjusted since Russia's
invasion of Ukraine.
He said that
before the Ukraine war, there was often propaganda about how the US would leave
Taiwan, but after the war, it was about how the US was pushing China to war.
At the same
time, Chen has detected a polarization of public opinion in Taiwan, with those
already willing to fight against Chinese aggression becoming more willing to
stand up to Beijing, while those who were unwilling to fight even more so. have
become less willing.
Amid this
battle for public opinion and efforts to influence personal commitment among
Taiwanese, Taiwan's government last year launched a Ministry of Digital Affairs
to combat misinformation on the island and its population. A number of measures
have been introduced for this.
In the rhetoric
war, it's not just a matter of countering misinformation reaching Taiwan, said
Wei, the military reservist, but also about how Taiwan garners support from
other countries.
Taiwan's
President Tsai Ing-wen has also taken some initial steps to accomplish this by
encouraging the island to tell its story to the world. Through the "Give
Taiwan a Voice" campaign, his administration has protested Taiwan's
expulsion from the United Nations and sought to highlight the island's
contribution to the international community.
At the same
time, Tsai pursued a so-called "Southward Policy" under the slogan
"Taiwan helps Asia, Asia helps Taiwan" to engage Taiwan more broadly
with countries in South and Southeast Asia. Tried to integrate scale.
Wei believes
that such steps are important if Taiwan is to win over global public opinion in
the face of growing pressure from China.
For Wee, the
importance of winning the narrative in the information war between Israel and
Hamas over responsibility for the deadly explosion at Al Ahli Arab Hospital in
Gaza was highlighted.
The battle to
convince the world of the severity and responsibility for the hospital atrocity
has had far-reaching consequences as meetings between US President Joe Biden -
Israel's staunchest ally - and several Arab leaders have drawn global attention
to the attack. It was canceled amid uproar.
As Wei said, no
one supports someone who bombs hospitals, and no one can win a war without
outside help.
He said that
winning the information war would be critical for Taiwan in any potential
confrontation with China.
"Therefore,
we must win the war of words so that we can count on international support if
the Chinese bomb Taiwan."
(Courtesy: Al-Jazeera)
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