COP28 Rollout: Climate Summit

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The Copenhagen Climate Ministerial and the release of the IPCC Synthesis Report (AR6) have set the stage for negotiations at COP28, which will culminate in Dubai. The first major climate summit of the year hosted by Denmark and the Egyptian COP27 and UAE COP28 presidencies in March has set the ball rolling for discussions on key issues linked to finance, loss and damage, and mitigation and the interplay with the Global Stock take (GST). The key messages from the AR6 and how they are leveraged at ministerials and reflected in the GST outcome will play a vital role in identifying the lack of adequate progress made towards delivering the Paris Agreement.

The AR6 provides clear indication for the need to respond with accelerated action. This is the time for defining diplomatic pathways ahead to ensure that COP28 is ready to course correct. The COP28 presidency can set out an actionable plan that puts the world on an emergency footing to meet the Paris Agreement goals. It is important that progress is made on negotiating tracks for multilateral action on climate change.

Moving from Sharm El Sheikh to the UAE and beyond will require a quantum leap in political will to address multiple issues. Accountability has remained a clog in the wheel, and left unaddressed will continue to derail the Paris targets.

Governments, in response to the GST, can set new measures for government, non-state actors, and cooperative initiatives to report progress to the UNFCCC. The modalities for the launch of a fully facilitated Santiago Network on Loss and Damage must be adopted to ensure finance flows from the fund and the wider mosaic of solutions at COP28.

As host and president of the upcoming COP, UAE needs to provide more clarity on how they are viewing the final GST outcome, including their vision on a GST declaration, a GST decision, a COP28 cover decision and technical annexes to help set unambiguous expectations.

The new World Bank leadership can put evolution on a fast track by driving the Common Assessment Framework implementation and a leaders` agenda to advance elements of the Bridgetown initiative and beyond.

The soft limits to some human adaptation and hard limits to ecosystems have been reached. There is increased evidence of maladaptation locking in vulnerability and increasing exposure risks. With sufficient global capital to close the mitigation investment gap, COP28 can be the enabler.

The fossil fuel phase-out must be the centerpiece of any science-based strategy to avoid overshooting 1.5 degrees Celsius. This will require that Nationally Determined Contributions this year align with 1.5°C pathways, and set 2035 targets by COP30 in response to the GST. The COP28 presidency can set out an actionable plan that puts the world on an emergency footing to meet the Paris Agreement goals.

High benchmarks must be set for the oil and gas sector to play a credible role in flipping investment ratios in favor of renewables over fossils, ending investments in new production, and setting net-zero transition plans including Scope 3 emissions. Going into the COP, the presidency must caution against engineered carbon dioxide removal such as Bio Energy with Carbon Capture and Storage and Direct Air Carbon Capture and Storage as substitutes for deep emission cuts and risk delaying the phaseout of fossil fuels as reliance on these technologies carries major risks of overshoot in emissions.

The Petersburg Dialogue in July can be used to test core elements of GST outcomes and build champion groups ready to share aligned high ambition expectations at the subsidiary bodies. The UN summit can raise the bar on ambition by widening a leader-level champion group to inject momentum into ministerial dialogue from pre-COP to COP28.

Finally, the next three years are most likely the last chance for giving meaningful shape to policy for defining emissions and resilience pathways this decade. The COP28 presidency can set out an actionable plan that puts the world.

(Courtesy: Dawn.pk)