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Sudan Conflict: 100 Days of Bloodshed and Struggle for Peace

For the past 100 days, Sudan has been embroiled in a devastating conflict, causing immense human suffering and rekindling ethnic tensions, with concerns growing about its potential to destabilize the entire region.

The turmoil erupted on April 15 when a longstanding rivalry between the army and the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) escalated into a full-blown war, transforming Khartoum and surrounding areas into violent battlegrounds.

The conflict has since spilled over into the war-weary Darfur region, as well as parts of Kordofan and Blue Nile states.

Various Efforts for De-escalation

Numerous diplomatic efforts have been made to halt the hostilities, but all have proven futile so far, as both sides remain entrenched in their fight for survival, believing they can achieve an outright victory without engaging in meaningful negotiations, according to analysts.

1. Saudi Arabia and US

In May, the warring factions agreed to hold talks in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia, mediated by Riyadh and Washington. 

Despite 16 ceasefire agreements following the talks, each one has collapsed. 

Subsequent negotiations were suspended when the army accused the RSF of a lack of commitment. 

Reports suggest that talks may resume after the army delegation returned to Jeddah on July 15, but no official statement has been issued. 

2. African Union

The African Union (AU) put forth its own plan, aiming to initiate a political dialogue involving Sudan's military, civilian, and social actors. 

The goal was not only to resolve the ongoing conflict but also to establish constitutional arrangements for a transitional period and the formation of a civilian government. 

However, despite convening three times, the AU summit has not yet produced meaningful results.

3.  Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD)

The Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD) also made an attempt to negotiate a resolution. 

The regional body, comprising eight countries in the Horn of Africa, formed a quartet committee (Kenya, Ethiopia, Djibouti, and South Sudan) to address the Sudanese crisis. 

However, an IGAD meeting on July 10 was boycotted by the army's delegation, which accused Kenya, the lead sponsor, of lacking impartiality.

4. Egypt 

Instead, the Sudanese army welcomed a summit held in Cairo on July 13, chaired by President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi, with whom Sudan's top general al-Burhan has strong ties. 

The meeting included leaders from Sudan's neighboring countries, the secretary-general of the Arab League, and the African Union Commission (AUC) chairperson. 

The Egyptian president outlined an initiative for a lasting ceasefire, humanitarian corridors, and a dialogue framework involving all Sudanese political parties. 

The plan received praise from the military and the RSF. 

Analysis of the Experts

Experts warn that the existence of multiple diplomatic initiatives hinders finding a solution, with insufficient cooperation and excessive competition among involved parties. 

Alan Boswell, International Crisis Group's project coordinator for the Horn of Africa, highlights the lack of diplomacy and notes that the US has not taken a proactive role in coordinating efforts.

Furthermore, rifts among regional players add another obstacle. The UAE, not directly involved in the roundtables, has simmering competition with Saudi Arabia, potentially hindering its inclusion in any process. 

Additionally, strained relations between Cairo and Abu Dhabi, as well as Addis Ababa, complicate matters. 

As the warring parties are not genuinely interested in negotiating at this stage, they seem more focused on using mediation efforts to buy time and gain international legitimacy while rearming for continued military actions. 

Devastating Impacts of the Conflict

The conflict has had a devastating impact on civilians. With at least 3,000 people killed since its onset, and more than 2.6 million internally displaced, and over 750,000 fleeing to neighboring countries, the humanitarian toll is immense. 

Disturbing reports of rape, especially affecting teenage girls as young as 12, have emerged. 

In Darfur, the conflict has taken on an ethnic dimension, raising concerns about potential ethnic cleansing similar to the atrocities witnessed in 2003, which claimed over 300,000 lives. 

The UN office for human rights has credible information linking the RSF to the killing of 87 people found in a mass grave near el-Geneina, the capital of West Darfur. 

The RSF's actions, including looting, pillaging, and sexual violence in areas with active fighting, have eroded its legitimacy. 

On the other side, the army's inability to effectively counter the RSF has led to increasing reliance on allies of the former regime of Omar al-Bashir. 

In summary, neither side holds the legitimacy to rule Sudan, making a two-step process essential: first, negotiations to end the conflict, followed by a broader political process.

(Courtesy: Al-Jazeera)