Image Credit: Google

China Taiwan: Understanding the Complex Relationship

Adil Javed

The relationship between China and Taiwan has long been a subject of global interest and diplomatic complexity, particularly between China and US relationship.

With distinct political systems, historical background, and conflicting claims, the interactions between China and Taiwan have shaped regional dynamics in East Asia.

In this article, we will try to explore the historical context of Taiwan issue, its current state of affairs, and key issues surrounding the relationship between China and Taiwan.

China Taiwan Historical Background:

Answering what is the background of the China and Taiwan conflict dates back to the Chinese Civil War in the mid-20th century.

Following the victory of Communist Party in mainland China, the nationalist Kuomintang party headed by Chiang Kai-Shek retreated to Taiwan and established there the Republic of China (ROC).

Since then, Taiwan has developed its own political, economic, and social systems by creating a distinct identity that was pretty much separate from mainland China.

One China Policy:

The "One China" policy provides the foundation of the official stance held by both China and Taiwan.

Under this policy, both the states claim to be the legitimate government of China.

On the one hand, Taiwan seeks to maintain its sovereignty and international recognition as an independent nation, while on the other hand China views Taiwan as an integral part of its territory and adopted unshakable stance and a persistent and uncompromised policy of reunification.

Cross-Strait Relations:

Cross-Strait relations refer to the interactions between China and Taiwan.

Over the years, efforts have been made to establish economic, cultural, and people-to-people exchanges between the two sides.

The Economic Cooperation Framework Agreement (ECFA) signed in 2010 was aimed at enhancing economic ties between the two countries and to promote stability across the Taiwan Strait in Pacific Ocean.

However, political tensions and differing aspirations for sovereignty as well as Taiwan’s alignment with US and its allies have posed challenges to the normalization of relations.

Regional and International Dynamics:

The relationship between China and Taiwan also has broader implications for regional stability and international politics. 

Many countries face the delicate task of balancing their diplomatic ties between China and Taiwan. 

China's growing economic and military power has increased its influence in the region, resulting in a complex geopolitical landscape where nations navigate between maintaining relations with both entities.

Security Concerns:

Security concerns are a significant aspect of the China-Taiwan relationship.

China considers any move toward formal independence by Taiwan as a threat to its territorial integrity and has not ruled out the use of force to prevent such a scenario. 

As a result, Taiwan maintains a strong defense capability with support from some countries, particularly the United States, which has committed to assisting Taiwan in its self-defense efforts.

Image Credit: Google, BBC

What would Happen if China invades Taiwan?

Understanding the potential consequences of a conflict over Taiwan is crucial for assessing its impact on the Asian region, US-China relations, and China's aspirations as a major power.

The ramifications of such a conflict shall include its effect on regional stability, the perception of China, military strategies, political alliances, and economic outcomes.

1. Implications for the Asian Region:

a. Economic Integration at Risk:

Neighboring Asian countries prioritize avoiding a military conflict that could disrupt regional economic integration.

b. Expectations from the United States:

Asian nations rely on the United States to effectively handle the situation and preserve regional stability, preferably without military intervention.

2. Impact on US-China Relations:

a. Perception of China as a Competitor:

A conflict over Taiwan would solidify the perception of China as a strategic competitor rather than a partner.

b. Accelerated US Military Modernization:

The conflict would spur the United States to expedite military modernization efforts, focusing on power projection, escalation dominance, and advancements in new warfighting areas.

c. Strengthening Political Alliances:

The United States would seek to bolster alliances in the Asia-Pacific region to counter China's influence and maintain regional security.

3. Economic Repercussions:

a. Restricted Chinese Access to Technologies:

A conflict may result in limitations on China's access to critical civilian, dual-use, and military technologies.

b. Potential Trade Constriction:

Economic repercussions could include a potential constriction of general trade, contingent upon international attitudes and responses.

4. Implications for China:

a. Undermining Peaceful Ascendancy:

A conflict would undermine China's objective of peaceful ascendancy and impede its economic growth.

b. Increased Military Expenditure:

China would be compelled to increase military spending and acquire advanced capabilities, intensifying security dilemmas in the region.

c. Balancing Policies of Regional Competitors:

Japan, India, and Russia may adopt balancing policies that hinder China's economic performance.

d. Disruptions to Growth Strategy:

A deteriorating regional environment and limited access to the US market could disrupt China's growth strategy, leading to internal dislocations and social unrest.

However, in a recent visit of US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen, both China and US has sought to dispel economic separation amid tensions. 

Both the countries have acknowledged economic cooperation.  

Conclusion:

The relationship between China and Taiwan remains complex and multifaceted.

Both sides hold their respective positions on sovereignty, creating ongoing tensions and challenges to finding a peaceful resolution.

The situation requires delicate diplomacy, dialogue, and a commitment to regional stability.

As international observers, understanding the historical context, current dynamics, and security concerns surrounding China and Taiwan is crucial for comprehending the broader implications of this relationship in East Asia and beyond.