Erdogan's Balancing Act: Russia and the West are Trustworthy

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In the opinion of Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, Russia and the West are “equally” reliable and trustworthy.

That is what the Erdogan said on September 18 commenting on the collective West’s dependability and on his frustration with Turkey’s long-stalled attempts to join the European Union.

“To the extent the West is reliable, Russia is equally reliable,” he told the PBS, a US broadcaster.

In addition, “For the last 50 years, we have been waiting at the doorstep of the EU, and, at this moment in time, I trust Russia just as much as I trust the West.”

After his September 4 visit to Russia where he met President Vladimir Putin, Erdogan also believes that leader of the Kremlin wants a prompt end to his faltering quagmire in Ukraine.

“Mr Putin is on the side of ending this war as soon as possible. That’s what he said. And I believe his remarks,” Erdogan wasquoted as saying by Al-Jazeera.

A Balancing Act of Erdogan

Erdogan may appear to sound naive, but he is directing a careful balancing act between the warring sides, the West, China and his own domestic audience.

His equitable position reaped enormous economic and political benefits both for him and his nation hobbled by a five years-long recession and traumatised by the February 6 earthquake that killed tens of thousands.

“Erdogan’s geopolitics is based on balancing on three points of geopolitical confrontation – the West, Russia, China,” Kyiv-based analyst Aleksey Kushch was quoted by Al Jazeera.

“From every direction, Erdogan gets maximal profit – markets, technologies and the economic modernisation from the West, cheap raw materials, fuel and a natural gas hub from Russia, transit [of goods] and investments from China,” he further added.

Although, to some Ukrainians, this balance may look cynical.

“He’s like a market trader – he smiles and asks about your family, but all he wants is your money and your recommendation to another buyer,” Valentin Aleksashenko, a Kyiv-based IT analyst who regularly holidays in Turkey, told Al Jazeera.

But Erdogan’s stance does help Kyiv’s war effort. Because, He called Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy a “dear friend”, and recently gave him a red-carpet reception in Istanbul.

He also helped negotiate the release of war prisoners and the extension of the “grain deal” to ship Ukrainian wheat via the Black Sea.

The Bayraktar attack drones, manufactured by a company associated with Erdogan's son-in-law, have demonstrated their deadly effectiveness against Russian troops. This has led Ukrainians to adopt the name "Bayraktar" for radio stations, cell phone plans, and business lunch menus in recognition of their success.

Erdogan's strategic reluctance to align firmly with any side in global conflicts has garnered support among his domestic voters. They are keenly aware of the European Union's hesitancy to admit Turkey as a member, and they perceive Western double standards on migration as fueling anti-Western sentiments. Seda Demiralp from Istanbul's Isik University emphasizes that Turkish voters value closer ties with the West while recognizing that Turkey is not treated as an equal partner by Western nations.

Gonul Tol, an analyst with the Middle East Institute in Washington, DC, notes that Erdogan's approach of maintaining a balanced stance between the West and Russia is a rational one. He cannot afford to alienate either side due to Turkey's strategic importance.

From the perspective of Brussels, Washington, and Moscow, engaging with Erdogan is an inevitable necessity. Regardless of their frustrations with him, both Western and Russian leaders see the importance of cooperation with Turkey, given its geopolitical significance.

Furthermore, there exists a personal connection between Erdogan and Putin, whose political trajectories share similarities. Born in the 1950s, both leaders have held power for over two decades and have faced accusations of increasingly authoritarian and nationalist policies, though they deny these claims. They both harbor nostalgia for their nations' imperial pasts and strive to revive them, despite the challenges. Their willingness to seek common ground sets their relationship apart in today's global landscape.

These leaders are rewriting the centuries-old history of tumultuous relations between Russia and Turkey. Historically, Russian czars and Ottoman sultans engaged in conflict numerous times, with Czar Nicholas I famously dubbing Turkey "Europe's sick man" before the Crimean War in the 1850s. Today, tensions have flared anew, with Moscow facing criticism for its annexation of Crimea and involvement in the Ukraine conflict.

In 2015, during Russia's campaign to support Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, Turkey downed a Russian fighter jet, leading to sanctions and strained relations. However, tensions gradually eased, and cooperation resumed, including the flow of Russian gas to Turkey and Eastern Europe. Even after the disruption of the Nord Stream pipeline to Germany, Russia sought to establish a "gas hub" in Turkey, though disagreements persist over control of this hub. 

In summary, Erdogan's strategic balancing act between the West and Russia, rooted in his voters' perception of Turkey's place in the world, is pivotal in contemporary geopolitics. This approach necessitates ongoing engagement with Turkey by Western and Russian powers, despite their frustrations, and highlights the unique and evolving relationship between Erdogan and Putin in rewriting historical tensions.