Why are Sudan's Warring Factions Meeting in Jeddah?

 

Image Source: Al-Jazeera

A round of talks called by international parties has already ended, raising some doubts about peace in Sudan.

Six months after Sudan's civil war broke out, its warring parties have resumed peace talks in Saudi Arabia, although cracks are already showing in the process. In a statement on Sunday, the US State Department urged both sides to "continue the dialogue in a constructive manner".The Jeddah talks, which began on Thursday, are being led by Saudi and US officials. The two countries helped broker brief ceasefire deals in May between opposing sides: the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF).

Thousands of people have been killed and more than 5.7 million displaced inside and outside Sudan, creating a situation that UN officials have described as a "humanitarian nightmare". Deadly fighting continues in Sudan's capital Khartoum and other parts of the country.

Previous negotiations yielded modest results

This time, representatives of the regional East African IGAD (Intergovernmental Authority on Development) bloc – of which Sudan is a member – are joining the peace talks. This bloc will work on behalf of the African Union (AU). Here's a breakdown of how things got to this point.

Who are the two sides fighting in Sudan?

The SAF is led by the Sudanese army chief and de facto leader of the military-led government, General Abdul Fattah al-Barhan.

In 2019, al-Barhan became head of the Autonomous Council following a popular coup that ousted former president Omar al-Bashir. Al-Barhan was to oversee a civilian-military interim government with then-Prime Minister Abdullah Hamdok.

But in October 2021, months before al-Barhan was to hand over power to a civilian government, he led a military coup and dissolved the civil-military partnership.

The RSF, on the other hand, is a paramilitary force headed by Mohamed Hamdan "Hemiti" Dagalu and operating independently of the military. It is a formalized version of the feared Popular Defense Forces, or "Janjaweed" militias that al-Bashir outsourced in the early 2000s to fight mostly non-Arab rebel groups in the West Darfur region. Human rights groups have accused the militias of ethnic cleansing, gang rape and even genocide.

After al-Bashir stepped down from power, Dagalu became al-Barhan's deputy in the Sovereign Council. The RSF leader is considered one of the most powerful men in Sudan, controlling several gold mines and gold export businesses.

In the 2016 Yemeni civil war, thousands of Dagalo forces also fought for Saudi Arabia alongside Emirati troops.

After six long months, analysts say the fighting, which has now drawn in other militias and armed tribal groups, is at a standstill. US officials told Reuters that the two sides had been in private contact for the latest talks.

According to Al Jazeera's Hiba Morgan, reporting from Khartoum, although the RSF's hand was visible in Khartoum at the beginning of the war, it is now unclear which side has captured more territory.

SAF forces control some areas outside Khartoum, including the main port of Sudan in the east. But recent RSF operations have put the army on the back foot.

The RSF captured Nyala, Sudan's second-largest city and a major SAF stronghold, early Thursday, the same day the Jeddah talks were due to begin. According to Morgan, the SAF is now threatening to withdraw from negotiations.

"This is where the army has one of its biggest military bases," Morgan said, referring to the city captured after two days of intense fighting. And this is the reason why, according to the sources, the army intends to withdraw from the talks. What do both sides want?

A power struggle between the two superpowers is at the heart of the crisis, as forces loyal to both sides fight for ultimate control of the country.

Tensions rose after a UN-backed framework agreement was reached in December 2022 by a coalition of both parties and civilian groups.

The purpose of the agreement was to restore a civilian government a year after al-Barhan's coup, which Dagalu also supported. But then, as Dagalo's ambitions grew, antagonism arose between them.

Then there was the issue of leapfrogging the security sector reform process before the transition to civilian rule.

In just a few weeks, Western diplomats tried to speed up the complicated process of how the RSF would integrate into the Sudanese army. However, differences arose over the proposed timelines: the RSF sought autonomy for another 10 years while the SAF wanted to disband paramilitary forces in two years.

Questions of rank, of who would answer to whom, boiled over into battle.

It is less clear what each side now wants for a negotiated peace in Sudan. To advance the talks, the SAF has previously demanded that RSF forces stationed in civilian homes and institutions in Khartoum leave, in line with an earlier agreement. It is unclear whether the RSF is now ready to withdraw its troops.

The RSF has also presented itself as a freedom fighter, calling for al-Barhan to resign. "The only key to solving the conflict in Sudan right now is to bring al-Barhan to justice," Dagalo told Al Jazeera in April.

Are any civilians involved in the peace process?

Last week, Sudanese pro-democracy groups convened as the Coalition Civil Front to End the War in Ethiopia to develop a vision for a post-war Sudan. According to Reuters, the coalition is not expected to be included in the Jeddah talks, at least not in the early stages.

Hamdok, who was part of the conference, said in a post Thursday on X, formerly Twitter, that an initial meeting had resulted in an agreement to create a "developing leadership body."

Shaza al-Mahdi, the Sudanese director of the Center for International Private Enterprise (CIPE), one of the Addis Ababa negotiating groups, told Al Jazeera that a major conference in two months would formalize plans to integrate civilian representatives behind Hamdok. will try Former rebels who signed the peace deal in Juba in 2020 also attended. "The goal is to unify the civilian front, stop the war and return to a democratic transition," al-Mahdi said, speaking from Addis Ababa.

The US State Department in a statement acknowledged the meeting and praised the convener. It remains to be seen whether the warring factions have paid any attention to this.

Allan Boswell of the Crisis Group, who told Al Jazeera that "the world has reacted to the collapse of Sudan with a surprising lack of diplomatic urgency", said that "there is still no explanation that the ceasefire in Jeddah How will the discussion of the 'ideological political process. Addis Ababa".

What's on the agenda in Jeddah?

The Jeddah talks will mainly be about a ceasefire, humanitarian access and conditions for a broader peace process. It builds on an earlier agreement in May called the Jeddah Declaration of Commitment to Protect Sudanese Citizens.

Political talks are reportedly off the table, as the US appears to favor a return to civilian rule.

The conflict has resulted in a large number of casualties in what many say is an indiscriminate shelling campaign on residential areas. At least 58 hospitals have been affected. Videos on social media show medical staff being tortured by RSF militants.

In addition to the high death toll and displacement, Sudan is also facing outbreaks of cholera, measles and dengue fever.

"It's not clear whether we will try to end the fighting just yet or whether the mediators will focus on small human victories," Boswell said.

Do you expect any difference from this meeting?

Efforts by the United States and Saudi Arabia to reach a resolution allowed aid to flow into Sudan, but those talks were also derailed by ceasefire violations by the warring parties.

In June, weeks of negotiations broke down after the SAF withdrew. Subsequently, the United States suspended the negotiations altogether and imposed sanctions on companies and officials affiliated with both sides from participating in the conflict.

Based on previous developments, expectations are not high for the Jeddah talks.

Egypt has historically allied with the SAF, while the RSF is reportedly supported by the UAE. Experts say that any lasting peace will depend on these external influences and will remain open to doubt.

"Realistically, I don't see it stopping any time soon," said CIPE's Al-Mahdi, given how divided the RSF factions are, adding that many may not agree on agreements as far away as Jeddah. "I think it will take longer than peace talks. It will take efforts, peace agreements and time to stop the war permanently," he said.

(Courtesy: Al-Jazeera)