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| Image Source: Al-Jazeera |
A round of talks called by international parties has already ended, raising some doubts about peace in Sudan.
Six months
after Sudan's civil war broke out, its warring parties have resumed peace talks
in Saudi Arabia, although cracks are already showing in the process. In a
statement on Sunday, the US State Department urged both sides to "continue
the dialogue in a constructive manner".The Jeddah talks, which began on
Thursday, are being led by Saudi and US officials. The two countries helped broker
brief ceasefire deals in May between opposing sides: the Sudanese Armed Forces
(SAF) and the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF).
Thousands of
people have been killed and more than 5.7 million displaced inside and outside
Sudan, creating a situation that UN officials have described as a
"humanitarian nightmare". Deadly fighting continues in Sudan's
capital Khartoum and other parts of the country.
Previous negotiations yielded modest results
This time,
representatives of the regional East African IGAD (Intergovernmental Authority
on Development) bloc – of which Sudan is a member – are joining the peace
talks. This bloc will work on behalf of the African Union (AU). Here's a
breakdown of how things got to this point.
Who are the two sides fighting in Sudan?
The SAF is led
by the Sudanese army chief and de facto leader of the military-led government,
General Abdul Fattah al-Barhan.
In 2019,
al-Barhan became head of the Autonomous Council following a popular coup that
ousted former president Omar al-Bashir. Al-Barhan was to oversee a
civilian-military interim government with then-Prime Minister Abdullah Hamdok.
But in October
2021, months before al-Barhan was to hand over power to a civilian government,
he led a military coup and dissolved the civil-military partnership.
The RSF, on the
other hand, is a paramilitary force headed by Mohamed Hamdan "Hemiti"
Dagalu and operating independently of the military. It is a formalized version
of the feared Popular Defense Forces, or "Janjaweed" militias that al-Bashir
outsourced in the early 2000s to fight mostly non-Arab rebel groups in the West
Darfur region. Human rights groups have accused the militias of ethnic
cleansing, gang rape and even genocide.
After al-Bashir
stepped down from power, Dagalu became al-Barhan's deputy in the Sovereign
Council. The RSF leader is considered one of the most powerful men in Sudan,
controlling several gold mines and gold export businesses.
In the 2016
Yemeni civil war, thousands of Dagalo forces also fought for Saudi Arabia alongside
Emirati troops.
After six long
months, analysts say the fighting, which has now drawn in other militias and
armed tribal groups, is at a standstill. US officials told Reuters that the two
sides had been in private contact for the latest talks.
According to Al
Jazeera's Hiba Morgan, reporting from Khartoum, although the RSF's hand was
visible in Khartoum at the beginning of the war, it is now unclear which side
has captured more territory.
SAF forces
control some areas outside Khartoum, including the main port of Sudan in the
east. But recent RSF operations have put the army on the back foot.
The RSF
captured Nyala, Sudan's second-largest city and a major SAF stronghold, early
Thursday, the same day the Jeddah talks were due to begin. According to Morgan,
the SAF is now threatening to withdraw from negotiations.
"This is
where the army has one of its biggest military bases," Morgan said,
referring to the city captured after two days of intense fighting. And this is
the reason why, according to the sources, the army intends to withdraw from the
talks. What do both sides want?
A power
struggle between the two superpowers is at the heart of the crisis, as forces
loyal to both sides fight for ultimate control of the country.
Tensions rose
after a UN-backed framework agreement was reached in December 2022 by a
coalition of both parties and civilian groups.
The purpose of
the agreement was to restore a civilian government a year after al-Barhan's
coup, which Dagalu also supported. But then, as Dagalo's ambitions grew,
antagonism arose between them.
Then there was
the issue of leapfrogging the security sector reform process before the
transition to civilian rule.
In just a few
weeks, Western diplomats tried to speed up the complicated process of how the
RSF would integrate into the Sudanese army. However, differences arose over the
proposed timelines: the RSF sought autonomy for another 10 years while the SAF
wanted to disband paramilitary forces in two years.
Questions of
rank, of who would answer to whom, boiled over into battle.
It is less
clear what each side now wants for a negotiated peace in Sudan. To advance the
talks, the SAF has previously demanded that RSF forces stationed in civilian
homes and institutions in Khartoum leave, in line with an earlier agreement. It
is unclear whether the RSF is now ready to withdraw its troops.
The RSF has
also presented itself as a freedom fighter, calling for al-Barhan to resign.
"The only key to solving the conflict in Sudan right now is to bring
al-Barhan to justice," Dagalo told Al Jazeera in April.
Are any civilians involved in the peace process?
Last week,
Sudanese pro-democracy groups convened as the Coalition Civil Front to End the
War in Ethiopia to develop a vision for a post-war Sudan. According to Reuters,
the coalition is not expected to be included in the Jeddah talks, at least not
in the early stages.
Hamdok, who was
part of the conference, said in a post Thursday on X, formerly Twitter, that an
initial meeting had resulted in an agreement to create a "developing
leadership body."
Shaza al-Mahdi,
the Sudanese director of the Center for International Private Enterprise
(CIPE), one of the Addis Ababa negotiating groups, told Al Jazeera that a major
conference in two months would formalize plans to integrate civilian
representatives behind Hamdok. will try Former rebels who signed the peace deal
in Juba in 2020 also attended. "The goal is to unify the civilian front,
stop the war and return to a democratic transition," al-Mahdi said,
speaking from Addis Ababa.
The US State
Department in a statement acknowledged the meeting and praised the convener. It
remains to be seen whether the warring factions have paid any attention to
this.
Allan Boswell
of the Crisis Group, who told Al Jazeera that "the world has reacted to
the collapse of Sudan with a surprising lack of diplomatic urgency", said
that "there is still no explanation that the ceasefire in Jeddah How will
the discussion of the 'ideological political process. Addis Ababa".
What's on the agenda in Jeddah?
The Jeddah
talks will mainly be about a ceasefire, humanitarian access and conditions for
a broader peace process. It builds on an earlier agreement in May called the
Jeddah Declaration of Commitment to Protect Sudanese Citizens.
Political talks
are reportedly off the table, as the US appears to favor a return to civilian
rule.
The conflict
has resulted in a large number of casualties in what many say is an
indiscriminate shelling campaign on residential areas. At least 58 hospitals
have been affected. Videos on social media show medical staff being tortured by
RSF militants.
In addition to
the high death toll and displacement, Sudan is also facing outbreaks of
cholera, measles and dengue fever.
"It's not
clear whether we will try to end the fighting just yet or whether the mediators
will focus on small human victories," Boswell said.
Do you expect
any difference from this meeting?
Efforts by the
United States and Saudi Arabia to reach a resolution allowed aid to flow into
Sudan, but those talks were also derailed by ceasefire violations by the
warring parties.
In June, weeks
of negotiations broke down after the SAF withdrew. Subsequently, the United
States suspended the negotiations altogether and imposed sanctions on companies
and officials affiliated with both sides from participating in the conflict.
Based on
previous developments, expectations are not high for the Jeddah talks.
Egypt has
historically allied with the SAF, while the RSF is reportedly supported by the
UAE. Experts say that any lasting peace will depend on these external
influences and will remain open to doubt.
"Realistically,
I don't see it stopping any time soon," said CIPE's Al-Mahdi, given how
divided the RSF factions are, adding that many may not agree on agreements as
far away as Jeddah. "I think it will take longer than peace talks. It will
take efforts, peace agreements and time to stop the war permanently," he
said.
(Courtesy: Al-Jazeera)
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