Somalia Has Joined the EAC Regional Bloc. What happens Next?

Image Source: Al-Jazeera

Observers say Somalia's accession to the bloc comes with numerous opportunities as well as numerous challenges. 

After more than a decade of intense lobbying, Somalia has been admitted to the East African Community (EAC). After ratification by the Somali Federal Parliament, membership will become official. 

The application process, launched in 2011 by former President Sharif Sheikh Ahmed, was long and difficult as some member states were reportedly reluctant to include Somalia. 

The process culminated this year when current President Hassan Sheikh Mohamad appointed a special envoy to speed up the admissions process after taking office for a second term in August 2022. Mohammed, who was also president from 2012 to 2017, was a key proponent of regional integration during his first term. 

"We are an important country in the region that can contribute a lot, and we will also benefit from them," Mohammed said as he arrived in Mogadishu after the EAC summit in Arusha, Tanzania, where Somalia was blocked on Friday. I was included.

The President has said that Somalia's membership will also benefit EAC members Burundi, Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), Kenya, Rwanda, South Sudan, Uganda and Tanzania.’ Critics of the move said the entry of Somalia, a country of more than 17 million people and a country with a long history of conflict, could pose security challenges for the bloc, which has a combined population of more than 300 million, or its Fourth part. Population of Africa. 

However, experts argued that Somalia has made significant progress in its fight against the armed group al-Shabaab and pointed to security challenges in other EAC members such as the DRC, where at least 120 armed groups operate in its volatile east. I am fighting, and South Sudan. , which has been in and out of civil war since before its independence.

Challenges and Opportunities

The EAC was established in 2000 and is headquartered in Arusha. Its mission is, among other things, to promote economic growth by eliminating customs duties between member countries. It established a common market in 2010.

Somalia's main economic activities are livestock and agriculture, and they have proven to be highly vulnerable to climate change. Cattle are Somalia's main exports, followed by bananas, fish, hides and skins, and charcoal, but the country is believed to have potential offshore resources such as oil and gas.

Since the fall of Somalia's government in 1991, leading to three decades of political instability and the rise of al-Shabaab, the country's trade with its neighbors has shrunk sharply. In the diaspora, poised for economic integration with its neighbors.

"I think EAC countries also see Somalia's ... successful investment in EAC countries," Mohamed Abdi Warre, a political analyst and former president of Somalia's Harshabell state, told Al Jazeera. 

"They also see its vast blue-chip economic potential in its long coastline, opportunities to contribute to Somalia's reconstruction and Somalia's links with its diaspora, its links with the Middle East and its strategic location as well as opportunities to take advantage of."

"With vast natural resources, rapid reconstruction and reconstruction after the defeat of al-Shabaab, Somalia is an excellent opportunity for regional investment in its blue economy, infrastructure rehabilitation and its real estate and construction industries," he added.

However, not everyone is on board with integration, even in the Horn of Africa country.

Friday's announcement has become controversial among Somalis. Many have called integration too early or too early.

One of them is Abdulrahman Abdishkoor, the presidential envoy for humanitarian aid, who said the EAC's membership is different from other institutions such as the African Union (AU), the Intergovernmental Authority on Development, the Arab League and the Organization of the Islamic Conference.

"We understand that all [those institutions] were created for political, peace and development cooperation, but the EAC bloc is different and was created mainly for economic and trade purposes," said Abdishkur, also a member of parliament. are, told Al Jazeera. "For Somalia, we don't have the goods, the services and the economic vision to bring to the table."

He said, "Almost every Somali middle-class [citizen] has bought an apartment and has a family in Nairobi, and real estate is booming, [a] boon signal for Kenya's economic growth and Other countries want the same," he said. "Somalia joining the bloc is an added benefit [for member states], but we are not getting much." 

He added that Somalia could be better off joining the bloc in the future if the country's leadership first provided the resources, energy and ideas to stabilize the country.

There are other challenges as well.

After its accession, Somalia is required to incorporate elements of the agreement into law within six months of signing the document.

In a report released this month, the Heritage Institute, a Mogadishu-based think tank, stressed that doing so could be difficult and could prevent Somalia from becoming an effective member of the EAC. The report states that this is due to the country's poor track record on governance, human rights, rule of law and socioeconomics. Additionally, "continued friction between the federal government of Somalia and member states" could also hinder the smooth ratification of the agreement in parliament, the report said.

Bashir Sheikh Ali, a senior legal fellow at the Heritage Institute and author of the report, told Al Jazeera that "any lack of infrastructure in Somalia will delay the part of integration that requires such infrastructure." 

For example, the EAC expects partner states to have dispute resolution forums for inter-state issues within the bloc, Sheikh Ali said. Without an independent judiciary, Somalia may not be able to fully participate in or benefit from the bloc's binding resolutions, he said.

"If the Somali government is serious about establishing an independent judiciary, Somalia will need a complete government, which will lead to a better environment for the people in all aspects of their lives," he added.

In its report, the institute recommended that the country develop a comprehensive risk mitigation plan and secure a long-term implementation of the agreement.

Dispute Resolution

In recent years, relations between Somalia and its autonomous region of Somaliland have been strained over the disputed town of Los Anod. Some EAC members have a diplomatic presence in both regions, and it remains to be seen whether Hargeisa, the capital of the self-proclaimed Republic of Somaliland, rejected Kampala's earlier attempt to mediate with it, and the peace bloc after Mogadishu. 

How will it help to maintain? 

Earlier, Somalia was embroiled in a diplomatic row with Kenya - the only bloc member that shares a direct border with it - over a maritime dispute. After out-of-court talks between the two countries failed, the former asked the International Court of Justice (ICJ) to rule on the case.

Although Kenya refused to recognize an ICJ ruling in 2021 that favored Somalia, experts said the two countries now have a platform to resolve future disputes. 

"From the Kenyan side, there was no way to resolve the issue, but now with Somalia's entry into the East African Community, it is hoped that any future conflict between the two countries will be resolved through the economic bloc mechanism. can be done." Horn of Africa affairs analyst Abdullah Abdi said.

Signs of this new synergy may soon be apparent.

In June, the AU Transition Mission in Somalia, formerly known as the AU Mission in Somalia, began winding down its peacekeeping mission. Established in 2017, its mandate expires in full next year. Thousands of AU peacekeepers came from the three EAC members. 

Analysts believe that Somalia's accession will increase the willingness of its neighbors to focus on eliminating the armed group al-Shabaab. The EAC has deployed a regional force in the DRC, the last member to join, and may do the same for Somalia.

If this leads to the elimination of al-Shabaab, which is notorious for its resilience, then Somalia's entry into the EAC could be a masterstroke not only for the country but also for the region, he said.

(Courtesy: Al-Jazeera)