In the wake of the dramatic US capture of Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro, the future of Venezuela hangs in the balance. The Venezuelan military, known as the National Bolivarian Armed Forces (FANB), emerges as a pivotal force in navigating the country's political transition. This analysis explores why the Venezuelan military holds the key to Venezuela's future, the implications of Maduro's abduction, and the potential paths forward under interim President Delcy Rodriguez and US influence led by Donald Trump.
The US Capture of Nicolas Maduro: A Turning Point for Venezuela
On January 7, 2026, US special forces executed a bold operation, abducting Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro and his wife from Fuerte Tiuna, Venezuela's largest military complex in Caracas. This event, marked by a funeral for soldiers killed during the raid, has exposed vulnerabilities in Venezuela's defense protocols and military technology. The US standoff with Venezuela has escalated, with Maduro now facing charges in a New York City courthouse, highlighting the limits and influence of US foreign policy under Donald Trump.
The abduction has sparked global reactions, including concerns from UN rapporteurs about a return to an "age of imperialism." Trump, unapologetic about bypassing international law, stated, "I don’t need international law," underscoring the aggressive stance. For Venezuelans, Maduro's removal brings a mix of hope and fear, as citizens reflect on the end of an era dominated by Chavismo—the sociopolitical ideology founded by Hugo Chavez rooted in anti-imperialism.
The Venezuelan Military's Rise and Role Under Chavez and Maduro
For nearly 27 years, the Venezuelan military was a staunch ally to Presidents Hugo Chavez and Nicolas Maduro. As Venezuela shifted toward authoritarianism, the FANB played a crucial role in dismantling old institutions and suppressing opposition. In return, military leaders gained immense power, including ministerial positions, governorships, and control over state-run enterprises.
This alliance intensified after the disputed 2024 presidential elections, amid allegations of vote fraud. A police state emerged, with the military supplanting local police through mass surveillance and repression. The "civic-military-police union" integrated elements from the United Socialist Party of Venezuela (PSUV), paramilitary groups (colectivos), and security forces, solidifying the military's grip on power.
However, Maduro's capture has tarnished the military's image as Venezuela's protector. The operation revealed an "insurmountable asymmetry" between the FANB and US military might, leaving Venezuela vulnerable to further interventions—despite Trump's assurances of no immediate plans.
Delcy Rodriguez and the Post-Maduro Political Transition
With Maduro deposed, interim President Delcy Rodriguez has stepped in, backed by Donald Trump. Rodriguez's administration requires Venezuelan military support to stabilize the nation and prevent escalating tensions. Analysts emphasize that any Venezuelan government—democratic or otherwise—needs the FANB's backing to govern effectively.
Trump's preference for Rodriguez over opposition leader Maria Corina Machado stems from her stronger acceptance among military ranks. This strategic choice aims to facilitate a smoother transition. In a Trump-approved move, Venezuela has released a large number of political prisoners, including former opposition candidate Enrique Marquez, signaling early concessions.
Incentives for the Venezuelan Military to Compromise
Facing a dilemma, the Venezuelan military must choose: align with the US-backed transition or risk erosion of power through further attacks. Key incentives for compromise include:
- Dissociating from Drug Trafficking Allegations: Military leaders must distance themselves from claims used by the US to justify the campaign against Venezuela.
- Accepting New Oil Agreements: Venezuela's vast crude reserves are at stake. US oil companies are poised to gain significant control, with executives meeting Trump to discuss investments. This could reshape Venezuela's oil sector indefinitely.
- Reducing Repressive Activities: The FANB may need to scale back its role in the police state, easing repression against civilians to foster stability.
- Supporting Delcy Rodriguez: Aligning with the interim president provides a direct channel to the Trump administration, positioning the military as a stabilizing force.
By underwriting agreements between Rodriguez and Trump, the Venezuelan military can maintain its political status. This model echoes US-backed military establishments in countries like Egypt, Pakistan, and Thailand.
Broader Implications: Is Chavismo Dead?
The abduction raises questions about Chavismo's survival. Rooted in anti-imperialism, the ideology may fade without Maduro, but its legacy persists in Venezuelan politics. The Venezuelan army has vowed to "confront imperial aggression," yet practical realities push toward adaptation.
Related developments include US Secretary of State Rubio's influence in the operation and Venezuela's alliances with Russia and China, now tested. Podcasts from Al Jazeera's "The Inside Story" discuss how Maduro's capture affects global powers and Trump's controversial remarks on Somali-Americans, adding layers to the US-Venezuela tensions.
Challenges Ahead for Venezuela's Future
Refusing to adapt could invite new US attacks, destroying military credibility and amplifying instability. As Venezuela grapples with economic uncertainties and geopolitical shifts, the FANB's decisions will define the post-Maduro era. For now, cooperation appears the path to preserving influence amid US dominance in Venezuelan oil and politics.
This unfolding story underscores the intricate dynamics of power, military loyalty, and international intervention in Venezuela. As events evolve, the world watches whether the Venezuelan military will emerge as a guarantor of peace or a catalyst for further conflict.
Courtesy: Al Jazeera
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