'A message': Why did Biden send a US strike group during the Gaza war?

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As the war in Gaza rages on, the United States has moved one of the world's largest aircraft carriers and an accompanying strike group to the eastern Mediterranean, boosting its military presence in the troubled region.

US officials said the move was aimed at preventing Hezbollah and Iran from "taking advantage" of the conflict between Israel and Hamas.

But with that stance, analysts say President Joe Biden is effectively threatening to enter the war on Israel's side if a wider conflict breaks out. Still, many believe it is highly unlikely that the U.S. military will participate in direct hostilities. 

"The administration felt it was important to take steps that would make it clear to Hezbollah and Iran that there was a threat of US military intervention from Israel," said Steven Simon, a senior research analyst at Quincy Institute, a Washington-based think tank.

Simon, who also have previously served on the White House's National Security Council and State Department. Have worked in high positions."I'm pretty sure President Biden doesn't want to get into this war. But sometimes you have to do these things to prevent," 

Biden said this week that his administration had "increased our force posture in the region to strengthen our deterrence" as a warning to any country or organization considering an attack on Israel. 

A few days ago, when the United States announced it would send the USS Gerald R. Ford carrier strike group to the region, a defense official put Washington's position more bluntly.

"This currency hike was intended to serve as an unequivocal demonstration in action and not just in rhetoric of US support for Israel's defense and as a chilling signal to Iran, Lebanese Hezbollah and any other proxies in the region. were to act as those who are considering taking advantage of the current situation. situation to escalate the conflict,” the official said.

"These opponents should think twice."

USS Ford a 'Political and Strategic' Signal

The situation in the region worsened on Saturday when the Palestinian group Hamas launched a highly coordinated attack against Israel from the besieged Gaza Strip, killing hundreds and taking dozens hostage. 

Israel retaliated by imposing a complete blockade of Gaza, preventing fuel and water from entering the strip. It has also continuously bombarded the area, as the Israeli army appears to be preparing for a ground attack.

Paul Salem, president of the nonprofit Middle East Institute, said the scale and brutality of Hamas' attacks facilitated a "more pronounced American response" in support of Israel than in previous Gaza conflicts. 

"Having an aircraft carrier is great political and strategic signaling," Salim told Al Jazeera.

But he added that US military intervention would be "far-fetched".

"Certainly they are signaling to Hezbollah and Iran: 'Don't get involved. If you get involved, you might have to deal with us,'" Salim said.

"It's not clear what that would mean. And given that Biden is entering an election year, it's not good for him to get involved in a war in the Middle East. Hence his political constraints are also there.

Secretary of State Anthony Blanken reiterated US commitment to Israel's security during a news conference with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on Thursday.

"You can be strong enough to defend yourself. But as long as America is there, you never have to. We will always be with you," Blanken told Netanyahu.

Israel, which has been accused by major rights groups such as Amnesty International of imposing an apartheid regime on the Palestinians, already receives $3.8 billion a year in US aid.

The Quincy Institute's Simon explained that while Israeli forces are capable of fighting on multiple fronts, the prospect of US strikes against Hezbollah would help Israel in a potential war.

He noted that the USS Ford carries 90 combat aircraft that can maintain a "serious operational tempo," including intercepting communications.

"I think the Israelis would be very happy if the US said to Israel, 'We'll take a little bit of the load against Hezbollah, so you can focus on Hamas," Simon told Al Jazeera.

The Lebanese Front

Experts say that it is unlikely to happen. There have been clashes between Hezbollah and Israel since the start of the war, but they are located along the Lebanon-Israel border. 

Salem, president of the Middle East Institute, said Hezbollah is trying to divert some of Israel's military attention from Gaza to the Lebanese border without provoking a full-blown conflict.

"They are playing a game to get Israel's attention and get them to focus on the northern front to weaken the forces in the south, but not immediately in Lebanon. War should break out. On Lebanon," he said.

Still, Salem added, the calculus of Hezbollah and its Iranian backers could change depending on the pace of the war in Gaza.

"If there's a huge Israeli counterattack, yes, it's going to kill a lot of people. But if it doesn't defeat Hamas and if it [the conflict] ends in a few weeks, then Hezbollah has another front. There will be no need to open," he told Al Jazeera.

But if Israel does 'really well' and is going to take care of Gaza and eliminate Hamas completely, I think there will be a lot of strategic pressure from Iran and others. Don't want to lose Hamas as an asset, so they may have to work.

For his part, Imad Harb, research director of the nonprofit Arab Center in Washington, D.C., said Lebanon's internal financial and political crises also limit the possibility of war with Israel.

The country's economy has been in decline since late 2019, with its currency losing more than 90 percent of its value. The political stalemate since Michel Aoun's term ended nearly a year ago has also stalled the election of a new president. 

Lebanon cannot fight another war. Hezbollah's constituency cannot fight a war, nor are Arab states prepared to help Lebanon if Lebanon goes to war with Israel and is destroyed in the process," Harb told Al Jazeera.

Hezbollah's Response

Hezbollah has rejected US military presence in waters far off the coast of Lebanon.

The Lebanese group said that "sending aircraft carriers to the region to boost the morale of the enemy [Israel] and its demoralized soldiers shows the weakness of the Zionist military machine despite the carnage and crimes it commits and therefore continues to External support is needed." said in a statement.

"Thus, we stress that this move will not intimidate the people of our nation and the resistance groups who are ready to fight until total victory."

Harb said Hezbollah's response is surprising, and does not mean the group is headed for war. "It's all rhetoric. I mean, these people — the Israelis, Hezbollah, the Iranians, the Americans — they're all rhetoric," he said.

Harb added that the US is also unwilling to go to war. While Biden wants to be seen standing with Israel, Harb explained that Americans are tired of war, and that war with Hezbollah and Iran could quickly spiral out of control.

"That's why a message like this is just a message," Harb said 

Maybe Biden is just trying to make a stand, but I really don't see the United States getting involved in that kind of war.

(Source: Al-Jazeera)